In May 2009, Bi Sheng first launched an internal beta version of selling shoes, named Le Taozu, and within a week of its launch, the income exceeded that of toys.

These people are not experts in a particular field, but their special skill is to predict "where to get important expert information", and share this information with others, divide the work, and cooperate to find solutions that exceed our expectations.A true "superforecaster" uses emotions for good and eliminates bias.

Emotions matter, and it's an essential part of the decision-making process.Team members don't want to let each other down, but also want to help each other, which promotes the formation of a good team.In the next five years, the prediction accuracy rate of contemporary "super predictors" may reach 85%, and a greater leap will be made after combining with big data.

Because we have to take into account not only economic and rational factors that affect us, but all social factors that come into play.While no one person can make a 100% accurate prediction, research has shown that some people are significantly better than others at predicting outcomes.

The role of emotion in decision-making is extremely complex, and it is even more incorrect to simply divide emotion and rationality into two.

Now, Barbara Mellers and Michael Platt, Wharton marketing professors and professors at the University of Pennsylvania, are conducting research at the intersection of marketing, psychology and neuroscience. Try to explore what commonalities drive "superforecasters" to make better decisions.They are keen to set up one fund after another, and even exchange endorsement fees for equity.

document.writeln('Pay attention to entrepreneurship, e-commerce, and webmasters, scan the QR code of A5 Chuangye.com WeChat, and draw prizes regularly.People who haven't seen it definitely don't know how to do it. For example, I may have just been exposed to it in the process of making catering. I can't say how proficient it is, but I at least know the particularities of each industry and how to break the barriers between industries. Gaps and integration of resources.

”During the filming of "Ink Attack", after the crew finished working, Wu Qilong often asked Qian Xiaohao to play video games together.I would rather spend my own money to do what I like. In this way, the channels and resource accumulation are my own. Even if I lose money, it should be my responsibility.